The Wells Fargo Championship returns to the PGA Tour schedule and welcomes an exceptionally strong field to Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina.
The 2020 tournament was canceled amid the COVID-19 pandemic, so Max Homa (+3300) returns as the defending champion. He’s trying to be the first back-to-back winner of the Wells Fargo Championship. He’ll be contended by seven of the top-10 golfers in the Golfweek/Sagarin world rankings.
Quail Hollow is among the PGA Tour’s most famous stops. It measures 7,521 yards and plays to a par of 71. Below, we look at the 2021 Wells Fargo Championship odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions to win.
Odds provided by BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 8:10 a.m. ET.
Favorite
Rory McIlroy (+1800)
We haven’t seen McIlroy since a missed cut at the Masters in mid-April. He enters the week at No. 15 in the Official World Golf Ranking and is without a win since winning four times in 2019.
He won this event for the first time in 2010 and did so again by seven strokes in 2015 at a record of 21-under par. His 2.76 strokes gained on the field per round over 38 career rounds played at Quail Hollow top this week’s contingent.
The Northern Irishman is in bad form with missed cuts at the Masters and the Players Championship in his last three events, but his three international top-10 finishes this year can inspire some hope.
The 18-1 payout in the strong field is weighing his recent form a little too heavily against his elite course history, including a T-8 finish in 2019.
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Contender
Francesco Molinari (+8000)
Much like McIlroy, Molinari started the 2021 portion of the Tour’s 2020-21 schedule well with three top-10 finishes in his first four events of the year, but he has slipped over the last couple of months. He missed the cut at both the Arnold Palmer Invitational and the Players before a 52nd-place finish at the Masters.
His strong course history includes a T-16 finish in 2018, a T-24 in 2017 and a T-17 in 2016. He has averaged 2.44 strokes gained per round at Quail Hollow to rank second in this field among those with at least 10 rounds played.
Putting has been Molinari’s greatest weakness this season. He’s still gaining 0.38 strokes per round on approach to the green with a total of 0.73 Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green per round.
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Long shot
Joel Dahmen (+12500)
Dahmen was the runner-up to Homa at the 2019 Wells Fargo Championship. He averaged 2.27 SG: Tee-to-Green, 1.56 SG: Approach and 1.32 SG: Putting per round for the tournament.
He returns in 2021 as a PGA Tour champion with a win at the Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship earlier this year.
While the field is considerably stronger and the course significantly more difficult, the 125-1 odds are far too high for a recent winner. Dahmen has been off of tournament play since a 74th-place finish at the Valero Texas Open ahead of the Masters. He returns well-rested to a course where he has had success.
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